scribblings !
The online journal of a passionate artist, writer and educator.
January 3, 2009
A Challenging Scenario for Art/Writing in 2009
While difficult to contemplate, bad economic times open opportunities for innovation, change, and new growth. This third in a series of posts on art, writing and the economy looks at the worst of the scenarios we will address.
The D Word or
Great-Depression-that-Sticks-Around-for-a-LONG-Time
How’s this for the depressing news story of the day: Next Federal Bailout May Go to States; Democratic Governors Seek $1 Trillion… 41 states and Washington DC reveal unprecidented budget shortfalls.
I’m over half a century old and don’t recall a situation this bad in my lifetime.
People who track unemployment statistics as they used to be tracked—like counting discouraged workers who’ve been out of a job more than a year—say the rate is running about double the 6-and-some-change-percent the government statistics state. Jobs reports are dismal.
Folks compare today to the beginning of the Great Depression, but in some ways times couldn’t be more different. Back then, the United States served as a creditor nation instead of a debtor one. Now numerous other counties own US debt opening the possibility of economic warfare. Families during the 1920s-30s had savings. Today, the average family carries a heavy debt load. Then, gold backed the currency while today only confidence stands behind it.
Here is a historical report of life in an artist/writer community during the Great Depression. “During the 1920s, Carmel-by-the-Sea, like the rest of the nation, flourished in an economy run rampant. But as the Great Depression took hold, real estate prices tumbled for the first time. Some locals bemoaned the fact that grocers no longer offered personal credit to Carmel’s starving writer class. Said one wag, “Time was when the Carmel grocer was big brother to many a writer and artist struggling toward fame and a check that would pay for ham and eggs.” The economic situation improved when Roosevelt took over the presidency, and 50 local writers found jobs with the Federal Writing Project, whose office occupied a small cubby next to the village post office.”
During the Great Depression, Federal Works Art Projects gave artists assorted art projects including murals. Gutzon Borghum completed the Mount Rushmore Memorial.
Jackson Pollock, Willem de Kooning, Georgia O’Keefe and Edward Hooper gained prominance. The 30s saw the completion of the Empire State Building and Rockefeller Center and Andrew Mellon donated $10 million to the National Gallery of Art.
Americans looked for an escape from the misery. Entertainment took the form of movies, radio, board games and books.
Fitzgerald, Hemmingway, Nash, Steinbeck, Sanberg, Richard Wright, and Agatha Christie wrote during the 30s.
Crisis moments create opportunities. As artists and writers, let’s approach the future with that thought.
January 2, 2009
Mid-range Scenario for Art and Writing in 2009
An L-shaped Recession
or Stuck-With-This-Mess-For-At-Least-Three-Years
Yesterday I discussed the scenario of a short recession and it’s implications for artists and writers. Today, let’s look at a longer or L-shaped recession, how it might impact us and our options as artists/writers.
Data supporting the idea of an L-shaped recession or worse abounds.
California, for instance, is weeks away from declaring bankruptcy. Yes, we are talking about the entire state going bankrupt, the 8th-used-to-be-6th largest economy in the world. Housing prices in Monterey County have dropped 65% in the last year. It’s county budget boasts a $24million shortfall. The collapse of consumer spending is decimating this artist mecca.
Unemployment serves as a lagging indicator of a downturn and usually remains depressed until after the economy begins to improve. Countries around the world are predicting rising unemployment throughout next year. For just a sprinkling for recent news on this check out: Germany, England and India.
Here in my backyard, reports suggest Microsoft will lay off 17% of its workforce January 15th. No small beans, Microsoft employs 90,000 people. While I don’t work for them, some of the people who take workshops from me do. They purchase artwork at the Bellevue Art Festival. They support the arts in Seattle. They buy books and my Quick Reference Guides.
Writers are taking hits in nearly every corner of the market due to cuts and industry changes in print media. These jobs will never return.
Surviving as an artist/writer through three to five years of an economic downturn, mayl mean a serious decline in sales and prices. Take up or expand your freelance work. Consider taking another job and working on art/writing in off hours. Cut expenses and overhead to a bare minimum and make whatever lifestyle changes necessary to continue your craft. Think about operating as an informal business. Read up on gorilla marketing. Get online.
As my husband works indirectly in the construction industry, we wonder whether his job will hold up through this recession. As a proactive move, we're expanding our publishing business by developing additional products and keeping overhead down by operating as an informal business. I'm continuing to teach and freelance. We'll see how it works for us in the long term.
January 1, 2009
Best-Case Scenario for Art and Writing in 2009
If you are new to this site, consider visiting the final post of last year and read about the 2008 art and writing market. It provides some foundation for this post and those soon to follow.
Over the next few days we’ll look at the possible economic scenarios for the art and writing markets in the coming year. Let’s begin with the best case and proceed to the worst, consider how people coped with similar circumstances in the past and examine possibilities for continuing to live and work as artists and writers through these scenarios.
U-shaped Recession or the Best Case We Can Hope For
While analysts debated all year whether to use the recession word, in late fall official news sources finally proclaimed we had officially been in recession since December of 2007. That eliminates a V-shaped recession, one where we go down and immediately back up, since we’ve passed that possibility already.
The likelihood of a U-shaped recession, a recession that drags out a bit longer, declines by the day as unemployment continues to climb, home prices plummet, and unintended consequences from the bailouts mount.
Suppose for a moment we believe the Pollyannas preaching a revival of the economy in mid-2009. Despite the odds, the economy miraculously stabilizes, folks manage to keep their jobs, taxes don’t go up, the price of oil stays down, home prices rebound and people find themselves with abundant credit and barrels of money to spend on art, books, magazines, films, etc.
Our personal experience with the last U-shaped recession intensified by September 11, 2001, included closing our gallery/café/frameshop. After the attacks on 9/11 we watched our income drop almost to zero for two solid weeks. NO customers came in to spend money on artwork, books, supplies or framing. Not even one. Everyone sat at home in shock over the evil deed and I don’t blame them one little bit. By mid-October, customers still weren’t purchasing. Since the recession had begun long before the terrorist attacks, summer sales fell below normal. Thankfully, we had income from a fall-festival to carry us briefly. With the slow-down in sales, our bare bones budget indicated we had better close or face bankruptcy within a few short months. We chose the former.
Others shared our experience. A friend with a huge national company that manufactured and distributed picture frames went out of business. Artists across the board saw drops in income. Some gave up their art entirely. Others, the ones who live it, persevered.
Writers and publishers took similar hits. Expensive printed material doesn’t sell well in recessions. Other market forces in the publishing industry have combined to force failure or consolidation on major publishing houses and those remaining are going digital. Many magazines and independent papers likewise have met their demise.
Best-case scenario: Tighten your belt. Cut your expenses. Take a job if you can find one. Keep painting/writing and have fresh material when folks begin to open their wallets around Christmas. Freelance. Tutor or teach.
We went informal with our business. My husband took an outside job. I went to a national writers' conference and booksellers' convention, talked to writers and publishers and learned everything I could about the business. We began our own publishing company, developed educational art materials, and got a trademark. I teach part-time as a private contractor.
In addition, we’re exploring some interesting alternatives as we move beyond this scenario into the L-shaped recession we’ll discuss tomorrow or into a depression, something we’ll look at in a couple of days.
In the meantime, if the current economic climate has you down and you need a laugh, visit Hoofy and Boo’s Gimme Shelter video.
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